Diarmuid Breatnach
(Reading time: 5 mins.)
On 13th April Iran struck back at Israel with a massive drone attack leading two missile attacks following behind. The targets were three Israeli military bases which some of the Iranian missiles hit.
The Iranian attack was in reprisal for an Israeli strike on Iran’s Embassy in Syria on 1st April killing 16 people, including a senior Iranian military officer, Hamas military and at least six civilians.1 Under the Vienna Convention,2 the embassy of a state is considered its sovereign territory.
This was not the first Israeli attack on Iran; for example on 27 November 2020, Israeli secret services assassinated a leading Iranian nuclear scientist, an action about which The Times of Israel boasted.3
Commentators have differed substantially in their evaluation of the Iranian reprisal. The USA and its imperialist allies have condemned the action and accused Iran of endangering the region with war, while not similarly condemning the attack on the Iranian Embassy.
Some commentators on the other hand have accused the Zionist state of trying to drag the USA on its side into a war with Iran.
A MISTAKE FOR IRAN?
Friends of the Western Powers have judged the Iranian strike to have been largely ineffectual, quoting Israeli military claims that 99% of the offensive munitions were shot down.4
Some also alleged the action to have damaged Palestinian interests by causing attention and concern to switch away from the Israeli state’s genocide in Palestine whilst also creating sympathy for the zionist state.
According to a number of sources the Iranian military’s attack on Israel included 185 Shahed drones which were extremely slow in terms of airborne attack, following these with the faster 36 cruise missiles and finally the much faster 110 ballistic (but not their supersonic5) missiles.
Although most of the projectiles were shot down at least five missiles did get through as the Israeli military conceded while claiming the damage was not substantial. Certainly according to recent photos of the damage released by Israeli military they at least hit an airbase runaway requiring repair.
The salient fact here however is that Iranian missiles did hit the actual targets at which they were aimed, two Negev desert airbases and a signals spying base in the Golan heights, all significant and well-defended Israeli military bases (note, not civilian living structures or medical facilities).
This was despite prior warning, the US-Israeli “Iron Dome” air defence system and fighters mobilised by the Israelis, USA, UK, France and Jordan (or at least from a Jordanian base) and refuelling of jet fighters by Saudi Arabia.
Furthermore, according to military munitions analysts, the drones were comparatively very cheap6 and even the cruise missiles were too, the total cost of the attack estimated at $80-100 million.
On the other hand, the Israeli and allies defence operation is believed to have cost in the area of a billion dollars7 which raises questions about how long such an operation or operations could be sustained.
Nor was the attack a surprise one but was announced hours in advance in statements and messages for example to the USA — and the drones and cruise missiles could be tracked from launch, taking hours to arrive8. Ballistic missiles on the other hand would arrive within minutes.9
What seems to be the case when all propaganda by either side is set aside is that Iran showed that it can put missiles wherever it wants to in the territory claimed by the Israeli State and that neither the latter’s military nor its allies can prevent at least a significant number of those impacts.
Furthermore, Iran followed this up with a warning that Israel’s heretofore impunity is at an end, at least in so far as attacks on Iran or Iranian personnel and property is concerned.
Beyond the Iran/ Israel hostile relationship, this has enormous psychological and political consequences in the region with the apparent invincibility of Israel severely punctured again after its military and intelligence agencies were caught napping on October 7th last year.
Israeli political leaders promised to respond against Iran at a time and in a way of their choosing and did so on 19th April with three drones attacking the airport at the Iranian city of Isfahan. However according to reports these were shot down without causing any damage.
It appears that Israel’s rulers felt something was needed to assuage injured pride but were also careful not to touch off another Iranian attack in response. But this also exposed divisions within the establishment with National Security Minister Ben Gvir tweeting “Feeble” on X in response.
The Israeli state cannot afford to go to war with Iran without the western powers, particularly the USA, fighting on its side and behalf. Iran has a huge number of missiles which, according to analysts, are located within deep silos and are now receiving a Russian air-defence system.
The Israeli state under Netanyahu hoped to drag the USA into a war with Iran but seems to have miscalculated badly; the US leadership has made it publicly clear that they do not want their zionist client to strike back at Iran, the implication being that they won’t support it if it should do so.
This has been too the position of the western power allies of the zionist entity. The reason seems to be that they all fear the huge disruption to oil and gas supplies that would result from a war in the region (and perhaps too, revolution by the masses of the western client Arab states).
The only retribution which the western powers have spoken about are economic sanctions and they have imposed these on Iran for many years in the past. In such a situation Iran would be sure to receive assistance from China, with which they have developed friendly relations.
Also China is contending with the US on the big world power stage so it would be in its interests also to assist Iran.
If the analysis that Iran has taken a successful calculated step in retribution to Israeli attack – and that the western powers will not intervene militarily — is correct, the Israeli state has suffered a huge blow to its image of invincibility and impunity within the region.
Arab Western power client states such as those the USA gathered under the Abraham Accords10 will at the very least be cautious about aligning themselves too closely with the area bully who no longer seems invulnerable and whose bigger bully boss didn’t back it up on this occasion.
If the analysis that Iran played its cards well holds true then 1st April 2024 will be remembered in days to come as a significant date in world history and perhaps even as the beginning of the end of the zionist colonial state.
End.
FOOTNOTES
1https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/02/middleeast/iran-response-israel-damascus-consulate-attack-intl-hnk/index.html
2https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vienna_Convention_on_Diplomatic_Relations
3https://www.timesofisrael.com/mossad-killed-irans-top-nuke-scientist-with-remote-operated-machine-gun-nyt/
4https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/14/why-iran-attacked-israel/
5i.e faster than the speed at which sound travels.
6Traveling “at the speed of a car and about the cost of a car” according to analyst Jon Elmer on Electronic Intifada Updates. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB_zjqeTlsw&t=11s
7https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/any-air-war-israels-defences-would-trump-irans-high-cost-2024-04-18/
86-7 hours for the drones and 2-3 hours for the cruise. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB_zjqeTlsw&t=11s
9And according to reports last year these have glide capacity and manoeuvrability, so can respond to active defences and also change their apparent target. At the time the Israeli Minister for the armed forces, Yoav Gallant, claimed that Israel could counter any attack by such missiles and also strike back harder.
10US-brokered agreements with Arab states to make the region safe for the zionist colonial state which have been severely damaged by the Israeli military attack on Gaza.
SOURCES
Electronic Intifada analysis of Iran’s operation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB_zjqeTlsw&t=11s
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/14/why-iran-attacked-israel
National status of a state’s embassy abroad:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vienna_Convention_on_Diplomatic_Relations
Previous attack by the Israeli State on Iran: https://www.timesofisrael.com/mossad-killed-irans-top-nuke-scientist-with-remote-operated-machine-gun-nyt/
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